From evidence to excellence: 17 million smallholder farmers, multiple futures

Smallholder farmers have been the backbone of food production in South-East Asia for centuries. But times are changing. Climate change, urbanisation, and shifting markets are transforming the agricultural landscape across Vietnam and Lao PDR.

This project examined the pathways open to smallholder farmers in Lao PDR and Viet Nam as they face this changing landscape — moving beyond the assumption that farm consolidation is the only route to viability, and instead mapping the diverse models through which smallholder farming can remain a sustainable livelihood to 2050.

Data collection for this project is now complete, and we are in the final phase of analysis and writing. The project concludes in September 2026, after which we will continue to release outputs over the following months. Our final project flyer, summarising our approach and key findings to date, is available now. Further policy briefs, reports, and journal papers will be added to this page as they are published.

Our approach

We used a Participatory Co-creation approach with partners to engage with more than 600 farmers, and over 130 agriculture and policy experts across multiple levels of government in Lao PDR and Viet Nam.

This was built through:

• Surveys with smallholder farmers across different regions in both Lao PDR and Viet Nam, gathering on-the-ground evidence of current farming realities

• Embedded policy engagement, working with policy champions from the outset so that findings are positioned to influence real decisions, not just describe them

• Three-Horizon Futures Thinking method to build a shared understanding of short-term realities (to 2030), medium-term transitions (to 2040), and long-term visions (to 2050) for smallholder farming in the region

• Integrated capacity building paired throughout implementation, so national and subnational partners leave with strengthened skills, not just research outputs

What we found

Our research combined household surveys, expert panels, and multi-level interviews to build an evidence base for both countries, and to identify the range of plausible futures each faces.

Viet Nam

• 372 household surveys and a 50-member expert panel, across six provinces for quantitative survey work and four further provinces for commodity-based case studies

• Average farm size of 0.6 hectares — among the smallest in South-East Asia

• Significant gaps in credit access, market bargaining power, and extension service reach for women, ethnic minorities, and youth

• Climate modelling pointing to ongoing yield losses, with rice yields projected to decline further by 2050

We identified four plausible futures for Vietnamese smallholders, ranging from continued stagnation under economic and climate stress, through uneven growth that benefits only commercial farmers, to a more inclusive transformation that remains achievable but is not guaranteed.

Lao PDR

• 250 household surveys, multi-level interviews, and an 86-member expert panel across three regions: Xiengkhouang (North), Savannakhet (Central), and Champasak (South)

• Average farm size of 1.8–2.4 hectares, with stark regional disparities in credit access, equipment ownership, and transport infrastructure

• Climate and biosecurity risks cited as the dominant constraint on production by most farmers surveyed

• A pronounced gender gap in credit access, particularly in the Savannakhet province

As in Viet Nam, we identified four plausible futures for Lao PDR smallholders, from rural decline through to an inclusive transformation that remains possible with the right policy support.

Project outputs

As we move through analysis, writing, and project close in September 2026, we are progressively publishing:

• Policy briefs — translating findings into practical guidance for policymakers in Viet Nam and Lao PDR

• Flyers and summaries — accessible overviews of key findings for farmers, practitioners, and the public

• Technical reports — detailed country-level evidence and methodology

• Journal papers — peer-reviewed analysis for the academic and research community

Contact

The Future Farmers for Southeast Asia project is supported by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) and implemented by a project team from the University of Canberra, the Institute for Strategic Policy for Agriculture and Environment in Viet Nam (ISPAE), the National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute of Lao PDR (NAFRI), and the National University of Lao PDR (NUOL).

• Project Lead (University of Canberra): Dr Leonie Pearson —leonie.pearson@canberra.edu.au

• Lao PDR Lead (NAFRI): Dr Latsamy Phounvisouk — meetouna@yahoo.com

• Viet Nam Lead (ISPAE): Ms Hoa Nguyen — Nguyenhoa@gmail.com

This project is funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR).